Os limites da contribuição da indústria ao desenvolvimento nos períodos Lula e Dilma: a consolidação de uma nova versão do industrialismo periférico?
Abstract
This paper aims to analyze the limits of the contribution of Brazilian industry to development in in two different moments: the cycle of relative growth between 2003-2010 and the deceleration and reversal between 2011-2015. For this, the structural decomposition methodology is used. through the shif-share technique, in order to measure such contribution in three dimensions: (i) productivity, (ii) wages and average remuneration and (iii) sophistication of exports in relation to imports. The paper suggests the consolidation of a pattern of structural organization of Brazilian industry that limits its capacity to contribute to development, independently of economic cycles. These limits would be materialized in the incapacity to engender a virtuous development cycle that fosters the reconfiguration of the productive structure. Finally, it is concludes that these limits are associated with the phenomenon that this paper suggests to be interpreted as a new version of peripheral (and now regressive) industrialism.
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