Evidências de desindustrialização setorial no Brasil: uma análise por modelos ARDL
Abstract
This paper analyzes deindustrialization in Brazil considering the short and long-run effects of variables identified by the literature as causes of the process on the export performance of individual manufacturing sectors according to technological intensity. To this end, Autoregressive Distributed Lagging (ARDL) models are estimated, with quarterly data from 2002 to 2021. Evidence indicates that deindustrialization in Brazil cannot be treated as a homogeneous phenomenon, as individual manufacturing sectors are affected differently by commodity prices, real exchange rate, interest rates, trade liberalization and domestic activity. However, it is worth noting the short and long-run negative effects of commodity price appreciation on various sectors, from low to high technological intensity. This result suggests directing productive resources to primary sectors to the detriment of industrial development and, consequently, the economic growth process in the long run.
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