New empirical evidence on the quarterly dynamics of Brazilian aggregate household consumption from 1995 to 2009

Authors

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1590/fsztm615

Abstract

This paper presents new econometric specifications for the quarterly behavior of aggregate consumption of Brazilian households from 1995 to 2009. It is argued, in particular, that the use of quarterly measures of both private disposable income (in chained 1995 prices), the credit granted to households (as a % of GDP) and a proxy for real interest rates as explanatory variables for the level of quarterly household consumption lead to well adjusted models “within the sample” with good “out of sample” performance. Moreover, the models presented in this paper point to values of the (approximated) private income elasticity around 0.4 and credit and interest (semi) elasticities of household consumption around 2%
and -2%, respectively. 

Author Biographies

  • Raphael Rocha Gouvêa, Institute of Applied Economic Research

    Master’s degree in Economics from the University of São Paulo (USP). Planning and Research Analyst at the Institute for Applied Economic Research (IPEA), Brasília, DF – Brazil.

  • Bernardo Patta Schettini, Institute of Applied Economic Research

    Master’s degree in Economics from the Federal University of Minas Gerais (UFMG). Planning and Research Analyst at the Institute for Applied Economic Research (IPEA), Brasília, DF – Brazil.

  • Cláudio Hamilton Matos dos Santos, Institute of Applied Economic Research

    PhD in Economics from the New School for Social Research. Planning and Research Analyst at the Institute for Applied Economic Research (IPEA), Brasília, DF – Brazil.

  • Cláudio Roberto Amitrano, Institute of Applied Economic Research

    PhD in Economics from the State University of Campinas (UNICAMP). Planning and Research Analyst at the Institute for Applied Economic Research (IPEA), Brasília, DF – Brazil.

  • Gabriel Coelho Squeff, Institute of Applied Economic Research

    Master’s degree in Economics from the Rio de Janeiro State University (UERJ). Planning and Research Analyst at the Institute for Applied Economic Research (IPEA), Brasília, DF – Brazil.

  • Márcio Bruno Ribeiro, Institute of Applied Economic Research

    PhD in Economics from the University of Brasília (UnB). Planning and Research Analyst at the Institute for Applied Economic Research (IPEA), Brasília, DF – Brazil.

  • Rodrigo Octávio Orair, Institute of Applied Economic Research

    Master’s degree in Economic Theory from the State University of Campinas (UNICAMP). Planning and Research Analyst at the Institute for Applied Economic Research (IPEA), Brasília, DF – Brazil.

  • Thiago Sevilhano Martinez, Institute of Applied Economic Research

    Master’s degree in Economics from the University of São Paulo (USP). Planning and Research Analyst at the Institute for Applied Economic Research (IPEA), Brasília, DF – Brazil.

References

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Published

2013-01-29

Issue

Vol. 21 No. 3 (2012)

Section

Article

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