Efectos de las variaciones cambiarias en un enfoque de dinámica de cambio estructural aplicado a la teoría del crecimiento restringido por la balanza de pagos

Autores/as

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1590/1aq1an78

Palabras clave:

Dinámica del cambio estructural, Ley de Thirlwall, Tipo de cambio

Resumen

En este trabajo se muestra que variaciones de una sola vez (once-for-all) en el nivel del tipo de cambio pueden desempeñar un papel importante en la composición sectorial de la economía, y que este hecho tiene implicaciones relevantes en términos de una versión desagregada de la Ley de Thirlwall, incluso frente al argumento de la insignificancia cuantitativa de los movimientos de precios relativos. Se demuestra, asimismo, que la tasa de crecimiento de un país compatible con el equilibrio en la balanza de pagos puede verse afectada por variaciones en el nivel del tipo de cambio nominal, e introduce el concepto de un tipo de cambio natural.

Biografía del autor/a

  • Ricardo Azevedo Araujo, Universidade de Brasília

    Doctor en Economía por la Universidade de Brasília (UnB). Profesor del Departamento de Economía de la UnB, Brasilia, DF – Brasil.

Referencias

ARAUJO, R.; LIMA, G. A structural economic dynamic approach to balance of payment constrained growth. Cambridge Journal of Economics, v. 31, n. 5, p. 755-774, 2007. ARAUJO, R.; TEIXEIRA, J. A Pasinettian approach to international economic relations: the pure labour case. Review of Political Economy, v. 16, n. 1, p. 117-129, 2004. ALONSO, J.; GARCIMARTIN, C. A new approach to balance-of-payments constraint: some empirical evidence. Journal of Post-Keynesian Economics, v. 21, n. 2, p. 259-282, 1998-99. ATESOGLU, H. Balance-of-payments-constrained growth model and its implications for the United States. Journal of Post-Keynesian Economics, v. 19, n. 3, p. 327-335, 1997. ATESOGLU, H. Balance-of-payments constrained growth: evidence from the United States. Journal of Post-Keynesian Economics, v. 15, n. 4, p. 507-514, 1993. BAIRAM, E. Levels of economic development and appropriate specification of the Harrod foreign-trade multiplier. Journal of Post-Keynesian Economics, v. 19, n. 3, p. 337-343, 1997. BALDWIN, R. Hystereses in import prices: the Beahhead effect. The American Economic Review, v. 78, n. 4, p. 773-785, 1998. BALDWIN, R.; KRUGMAN, P. Persistent trade effects of large exchange rate shocks. The Quaterly Journal of Economics, v. 104, n. 4, p. 635-654, 1989. BARBOSA-FILHO, N. Exchange rates, growth and inflation. Paper submitted to the Annual Conference on Development and Change, Campos do Jordão, Brazil, Nov. 18-20, 2006. BERG, A.; MIAO, Y. The real exchange rate and growth revisited: the Washington consensus strikes back? IMF Working Paper 10/58, 2010. BLECKER, R. The balance of payment-constrained growth model and limits to exportled growth. In: DAVIDSON, P. (Ed.). A post-Keynesian perspective on twenty-first century economic problems. UK: Edward Elgar Publishing Limited, 2002. FRENKEL, R.; TAYLOR, L. Real exchange rate, monetary policy and employment. United Nations, 2006. (DESA Working Paper, n. 19). GOLVEA, R.; LIMA, G. Structural change, balance-of-payments constraint and economic growth: evidence from the multi-sectoral Thirlwall’s law. In: BRAZILIAN MEETING OF ECONOMICS, 37, 2009. Proceedings... GOLVEA, R.; LIMA, G. Balance-of-payments-constrained growth in a multisectoral framework: a panel data investigation. Germany: University Library of Munich, 2011. (MPRA Paper, n. 29816). HIEKE, H. Balance-of-payment-constrained growth: a reconsideration of the evidence for the U.S. economy. Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, v. 19, n. 3, p. 313-325, 1997. KENEN, P. Essays in international economics. Princenton; New Jersey: Princenton University Press, 1980. LEON-LEDESMA, M. An application of Thirlwall’s law to the Spanish economy. Journal of Post-Keynesian Economics, v. 21, n. 3, p. 431-439, 1999. LOPEZ, J.; CRUZ, A. Thirlwall’s law and beyond: the Latin American experience. Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, v. 22, n. 3) p. 477-495, 2000. McCOMBIE, J. On the empirics of balance of payments-constrained growth. Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, v. 19, n. 3, p. 345-376, 1997. McCOMBIE, J.; ROBERTS, M. The role of balance of payments in economic growth. In: SETTERFIELD, M. (Org.). The economics of demand-led growth: challenging the supply-side vision of the long run. Cheltenham, UK; Northampton, MA: Edward Elgar, 2002.

p. 87-114. McCOMBIE, J.; THIRLWALL, A. Economic growth and balance-of-payments constraint. New York: St. Martins Press, 1994. MORENO, J. Mexico’s economic growth and the balance of payments constraint: a cointegration analysis. International Review of Applied Economics, v. 13, n. 2, p. 150–159, 1999. OCAMPO, A. The quest for dynamic efficiency. In: OCAMPO, José A. (Ed.). Beyond reforms: structural dynamics and macroeconomic vulnerability. Stanford University Press, 2005. PALMA, G. Four sources of ‘de-industrialization’ and a new concept of the ‘dutch disease’. In: OCAMPO, José A. (Ed.). Beyond reforms: structural dynamics and macroeconomic vulnerability. Stanford University Press, 2005. PASINETTI, L. Structural change and economic growth – A theoretical essay on the dynamics of the wealth of the nations. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 1981. PASINETTI, L. Structural economic dynamics – A theory of the economic consequences of human learning. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 1993. PERRATON, J. Balance of payments constrained growth and developing countries: an examination of Thirlwall’s hypothesis. International Review of Applied Economics, v. 17, n. 1, p. 1-22, 2003. PORCILE, G.; LIMA, G. Real exchange rate and elasticity of labour supply in a balanceof-payments constrained macrodynamics. Cambridge Journal of Economics, v. 34, p. 1019-1039, 2010. RICARDO, D. Principles of political economy and taxation. In: SRAFFA, Pierro (Ed.). Works and correspondences of David Ricardo. I. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1921 [1817]. RODRIK, D. The real exchange rate and economic growth: comments and discussions. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, p. 365-412, Fall 2008. THIRLWALL, A. The balance of payments constraint as an explanation of international growth rates differences. Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, 128, p. 45-53, 1979. THIRLWALL, A. Growth and development. 5th ed. London: Macmillan Press Ltd., 1994. THIRLWALL, A. Reflections on the concept of balance-of payments-constrained growth. Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, v. 19, n. 3, p. 377-386, 1997.

Descargas

Publicado

2013-01-29

Número

Vol. 21 Núm. 3 (2012)

Sección

Artículo

Licencia

Los autores que publican en esta revista están de acuerdo con los siguientes términos: Los autores mantienen los derechos de autor y conceden a la revista el derecho de primera publicación, con el trabajo simultáneamente licenciado bajo la Licencia Creative Commons Attribution, que permite compartir el trabajo con el reconocimiento de la autoría y la publicación inicial en esta revista. Los autores tienen autorización para asumir contratos adicionales por separado para la distribución no exclusiva de la versión del trabajo publicada en esta revista (por ejemplo, publicar en un repositorio institucional o como capítulo de libro), con reconocimiento de la autoría y la publicación inicial en esta revista. Todo el contenido de la revista, excepto donde se indique, está licenciado bajo una licencia Creative Commons de tipo BY-NC.